CEDA Commentary: Migration Will Serve as a Clear Indicator of the Evolving Crisis in Venezuela
Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado wave at supporters during their campaign closing rally in Caracas on July 25, 2024, ahead of Sunday's presidential election. (Photo by FEDERICO PARRA/AFP via Getty Images)
Following the July 28th presidential elections in Venezuela, democratic observers from the Carter Center declared that they could not verify or corroborate the results declared by Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE). The Carter Center pointed to a serious breach of electoral principles due to the failure to release disaggregated results by polling station, underscoring that the elections cannot be considered democratic.
The regional response has been somewhat mixed. A majority of Latin American countries rejected the results or have called for a complete count and verification. Others, including Bolivia, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua, officially recognized President Nicolás Maduro as the victor. The Organization of American States (OAS) struggled to present a united front, with 11 abstentions and five absences preventing the passage of a resolution that urged transparency and a full vote count. The governments of Brazil, Mexico and Colombia wrote a joint statement calling for the rapid and transparent release of disaggregated voting data by Venezuelan electoral authorities, the resolution of electoral disputes through institutional channels, and for political and social actors to exercise caution and restraint to maintain peace and protect lives. Finally, on August 1, 2024, the U.S. government concluded that the opposition won, congratulated Edmundo González on his successful campaign, and urged a peaceful transfer of power.
Amidst this political strife and the diplomatic race to respond, one of the most significant impacts and indicators of how this crisis evolves is and will be migration. More than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2014, marking the largest exodus in Latin America's recent history and one of the largest displacement crises in the world. The vast majority, approximately 6.5 million, reside in Latin America and the Caribbean. According to the UN Refugee Agency, 20 percent of Venezuela's population has fled, with an average of 2,000 people leaving daily. In the past four years, U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered over 720,000 Venezuelan nationals at the Southwest border. The Venezuelan migration phenomenon compounds pre-existing and new migration flows within the Americas (including Cubans, Ecuadorians, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Hondurans, to name just a few), creating a cascade of challenges and opportunities for the region. Further, particularly in an election year as is the case in the United States, such flows become a political campaign instrument, with real implications at the ballot box.
As Venezuela remains on tenterhooks with both the Maduro regime and the opposition claiming victory, the country faces a deepening crisis, marked by protests and increased government-led repression, including violence, arbitrary arrests, and forced disappearances. This violence, political instability and accompanying economic downturns are likely to prompt more Venezuelans to flee their country in search of better living conditions, safety, and opportunities. According to one July 2024 survey, 17 percent, or roughly four million Venezuelans anticipated leaving the country in coming months should Maduro remain in the presidency. As countries work to collaborate and align their migration policies, especially under the umbrella of the Los Angeles Declaration for Migration and Protection, the renewed crisis in Venezuela beckons us to consider the following possibilities:
Increased Pressure on Host Countries: Countries like Colombia, Brazil, and Peru, which already host large numbers of Venezuelan migrants, face additional strain on their social services, healthcare, and employment sectors as more migrants arrive. This is particularly challenging for host countries that are contending with economic and security challenges of their own, such as Ecuador, which is now experiencing its own outflow in addition to new internal displacement, or Colombia, which has already granted temporary protected status to over 1.7 million Venezuelans. Further, the integration of migrants into local communities can lead to social tensions and xenophobia, as seen in various instances across Latin America, and weaponized as an electoral campaign issue in the United States. Effective integration policies are crucial to mitigate these risks and harness the potential benefits of migration, such as cultural diversity and economic contributions. This includes education, job training, and legal support to help them contribute to and integrate into their new communities.
Deepening of A Humanitarian Crisis: The increased migration flow exacerbates humanitarian challenges, as host and transit countries struggle to provide adequate food, shelter, and medical care to the growing number of refugees. Current needs already far outstrip the number of humanitarian organizations and the funding they receive to operate in hotspot areas such as the Darien Gap and southern and northern Mexico. The UNHCR and IOM have reported significant gaps in funding, leading to inadequate support for migrants, which can result in dire living conditions and increased vulnerability.
Diplomatic Tension Will Leave Migrants in Legal Limbo: Diplomatic tensions and ruptures lead to consular processing delays or suspensions and travel disruptions. By July 29th, Venezuela had withdrawn all diplomatic personnel from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, Peru, Dominican Republic, and Uruguay. This dramatically affects Venezuelans who require legal documents and apostilled paperwork from their embassies to complete regularization processes, seek gainful employment, reunite with family, and benefit from humanitarian parole or refugee resettlement programs to which they may be entitled. The lack of these documents can leave migrants in legal limbo, increasing their risk of exploitation and limiting their access to essential services.
Political Tension Will Impact a Cohesive Regional Response to Crisis: The crisis can lead to heightened political tensions within and between countries across the Americas, as governments and political groups disagree on how to respond to a new influx of refugees and migrants and the root causes in Venezuela. This can undermine the delicate balance of responsibility-sharing at present and the need to continue advancing commitments made under the Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection. For instance, differing national policies and political agendas can hinder the implementation of coordinated regional strategies, leading to fragmented and inefficient responses to the migration crisis at a time when the international community must strengthen protection mechanisms and provide legal safeguards to ensure the safety and dignity of migrants, especially women, children, and unaccompanied minors.
Heightened Human Rights and Protection Concerns: Migrants often face significant risks during their journey, including violence, exploitation, and abuse. Ensuring their protection and upholding their human rights is a major concern for host and transit countries. Should governments react with deepening restrictive border enforcement policies, people on the move and organized crime alike will search for new and more dangerous routes. This will generate new risks related to smuggling, human trafficking and all associated forms of violence, including sexual violence, as we have seen in the Darien and elsewhere.
As Venezuela's political turmoil deepens, the escalating migration crisis will continue to challenge the region's capacity to manage and integrate large numbers of displaced individuals. It will intensify humanitarian needs and it will strain diplomatic relations. The international community's response will be crucial in shaping the outcomes for both migrants and host countries, recognizing the need for coordinated regional strategies and robust support mechanisms to address the multifaceted impacts of this ongoing crisis.