Cuba In Crisis
Residents prepare a soup over an open fire during a blackout following the failure of a major power plant in Havana, Cuba, Oct. 19, 2024. (Licensed AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)
Welcome to CEDA’s U.S.-Cuba News Brief, where we highlight and break down recent news about Cuba and U.S.-Cuba relations.
A long-standing energy crisis, which CEDA reported on in 2023, came to a head this month with nationwide blackouts affecting over 10 million Cubans. The blackouts come at the same time as record inflation and a historic exodus from the country, which has hollowed out Cuba’s working class and left thousands of children and elderly without caretakers.
CNN’s Havana Bureau Chief, Patrick Oppmann, told CEDA on Wednesday: “Cuba has entered the worst economic crisis that any of us can remember. Cubans lost millions of dollars in food and medicines with the blackout. People are deeply shaken and more likely to try to emigrate.” Regarding the current state of US-Cuba relations, he said, “Both governments continue to talk past each other as the situation becomes unsustainable for the people who bear the brunt of this dysfunctional relationship.”
Omar Everleny, a Cuban economist in Havana, told the New York Times: “It’s chaos…Anyone who was thinking of leaving is now accelerating those plans. Now you’re hearing ‘I am going to sell my house and go.’” The blackouts led to food and medicine spoiled in fridges, inoperable electrical stoves, and with water supply dependent on electrical pumps – no water.
The Cuban government blamed the U.S. embargo for the energy crisis.
Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel also issued a warning to those who wished to express their discontent with the situation: “We will not accept or allow anyone to act by provoking acts of vandalism, and much less disturbing the civil tranquility of our people,” the president said. “And that is a conviction, and that is a principle of our revolution.” Upon arrival in the Guantánamo region, President Díaz-Canel was met with discontent and desperation after Hurricane Óscar compounded the crisis following the blackouts – to which the President responded, “Nadie tiene la culpa de lo que pasó” – “What happened was nobody’s fault.”
The Government of Mexico offered technical assistance to restore electricity in Cuba. A fake video circulated on X depicting Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum offering a $20 million line of credit to Cuba – this did not happen.
The U.S. government’s reaction has been mixed. In an October 21 press briefing, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre noted that the U.S. “is not to blame for the blackouts on the island or the overall energy situation in Cuba” and “the Cuban government has not requested any assistance at this time.” When asked if the U.S. would provide aid if the Cuban government were to request it, Jean-Pierre said the U.S. “would assess the next best steps.”
The likelihood of the U.S. government providing substantial aid or intervention in Cuba before the upcoming presidential election is relatively low, as domestic political considerations tend to dominate the agenda during this time. However, the U.S. has stepped in during times of crisis. Dr. William LeoGrande notes: “There are precedents for offering Cuba humanitarian assistance. President George W. Bush, no friend of the Cuban regime, offered help several times in the wake of hurricanes. The Biden administration provided $2 million in relief after Hurricane Ian.” Following the 2022 fire at the Matanzas oil facility in Cuba, the United States offered technical assistance to help with the disaster, signifying a willingness to support Cuba during crises.
The prolonged crisis in Cuba carries significant implications for U.S. national security. As Cuba will likely continue to struggle with widespread power outages, there may be an opportunity for the U.S. to consider ways to assist in stabilizing the island’s energy infrastructure and providing humanitarian aid to the Cuban people. At the time of publication, no known formal request for aid has been made. Failure to engage could exacerbate the crisis and prolong the suffering of the Cuban people.
In Cuba
Cuba’s Grid Goes Down
Last week, Cuba’s entire electrical grid collapsed, leaving 10 million people without power. The crisis began when the Antonio Guiteras power plant in Matanzas failed, causing a nationwide blackout. Restoration efforts by the Cuban government did not prevent the grid fully collapsing again in the following days. Power outages also impacted water access for many Cubans. Little by little, power has begun to be restored across the island, and at the time of this News Brief, 70 percent of power has been restored on the island, according to Al Jazeera.
The collapse has been attributed to deteriorating infrastructure, fuel shortages, and Hurricane Milton disrupting fuel deliveries. The Cuban government put the blame on the U.S. embargo for its fuel shortages, even calling US policy “genocidal.”
Cuba’s energy crisis is not new, and short-term solutions will be just that – short-term. In 2023, CEDA interviewed Jorge Piñon about Cuba’s energy crisis. He described the main factors contributing to Cuba’s energy crisis:
Grid Crisis: Cuba's electrical grid, dependent on thermoelectric plants over 40 years old, is collapsing. These plants, which burn high-sulfur oil, are severely degraded due to years of deferred maintenance.
Blackouts: Only about 50% of capacity is operational, causing 8–10 hour daily blackouts. (Pre-October 2024)
Funding Issues: The government cannot attract needed foreign investment, and temporary fixes like leased power stations don't resolve the deeper infrastructure issues.
Geopolitical Reliance: Subsidized fuel from Venezuela and Russia provides short-term relief but keeps Cuba reliant on outdated energy sources.
Renewable Energy Slowdown: Efforts to reach 37% renewables by 2030 face funding and logistical hurdles.
According to Piñon, without significant foreign investment, economic reforms, and modernization efforts, the crisis is unlikely to be resolved in the near future.
Impact on Vulnerable Populations in Cuba
Vulnerable populations–the chronically ill, elderly, young children, and poorest regions– were hit hardest, as food and medicine spoiled without refrigeration, water access was cut, and essential services like banking became inaccessible. The blackout triggered at few dozen protests, with citizens, especially in poorer areas, expressing frustration over worsening conditions.
ES: El Estornudo: Los pacientes crónicos que necesitan de la electricidad para vivir (The Chronically Ill Who Need Electricity to Live); Sobre vivir el apagón (Surviving the Blackout)
The blackout in Cuba has had a severe impact on those who rely on electricity for survival, particularly patients with chronic conditions. Individuals needing oxygen, dialysis, and other life-sustaining medical devices are in immediate danger, as power outages make it impossible to maintain the continuous care they need. Families face constant uncertainty, struggling to keep their loved ones alive with limited resources. Moreover, the blackout has disrupted daily life across the island, affecting access to clean water, refrigeration, and basic hygiene. Many Cubans are unable to store food safely or ensure a clean living environment, leaving them to improvise in extremely challenging conditions. These hardships have intensified for vulnerable populations, especially in rural and economically disadvantaged areas.
ES: Periodismo del Barrio: ¿Cómo se le habla a una madre cubana? (What Do You Say To A Cuban Mother?): Periodismo del Barrio explores how Cuban mothers are particularly affected, as they struggle to care for their children amid the ongoing blackout. The article discusses the emotional distress of mothers who are unable to provide basic necessities for their families, such as food and comfort. The lack of electricity makes it difficult to prepare meals, maintain a safe home environment, and reassure children who are growing up in a state of fear and uncertainty.
AP: 7 Cubans Killed By Hurricane Oscar
Tropical Storm Oscar hit Cuba two days after the first nationwide blackout, killing at least seven people and causing major flooding, especially in the eastern town of San Antonio del Sur. President Díaz-Canel confirmed the death toll and emphasized rescue efforts.
US-Cuba Relations
FIU’s Cuban Research Institute Releases 2024 Cuba Poll
Florida International University (FIU), released their annual poll on Cuban American current political views, revealing that Cuba policy ranks sixth in importance among Cuban-Americans, with economic issues, healthcare, and immigration being top concerns. Other important takeaways:
68% of Cuban-American voters support Trump in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, up from 63% in 2020.
55% of Cuban Americans favor continuing the embargo on Cuba, with 65% of Republicans supporting maximum pressure on the Cuban government. 72% of Cuban American Democrats oppose the embargo.
42% of Cuban Americans support allowing small business owners in Cuba, who have no ties to the Communist Party, to open U.S. bank accounts. This support increases to 49% among the youngest age group and 67% among recent arrivals.
44% of Cuban Americans rely on social media, particularly influencers like Otaola, as a key source of information and updates about Cuba.
Younger Cuban Americans and those born outside of Cuba tend to have more progressive views, particularly regarding engagement with the island. For instance, nearly half of the youngest cohort supports allowing Cuban small business owners to access U.S. banking services, suggesting a more flexible approach towards economic interactions with Cuba.
What's clear is Cuban Americans' views create a dilemma for US policymakers. There is widespread support for selling food and medicine to Cuba to improve the wellbeing of Cubans, but a majority of Cuban Americans also want a policy focused on exerting maximum pressure on the Cuban government. Overall, Cuban Americans' views are not monolithic, and understanding these nuances is crucial for any policymaker attempting to address U.S.-Cuba relations.
AP: Cruise Lines Score Victory From Appeals Court Reversal of $439M Illegal Tourism Lawsuit
The U.S. 11th Circuit Court of Appeals overturned a previous ruling that found four major cruise lines—Carnival, Royal Caribbean, MSC Cruises, and Norwegian—liable for $439 million in damages to Havana Docks Corporation. The earlier decision held them accountable for using Havana docks that were confiscated by Cuba’s government in the 1960s. However, the appeals court determined that Havana Docks' property interest expired in 2004, meaning the cruise lines’ use of the docks did not constitute illegal trafficking.
Havana Docks claimed that three Havana ports previously owned by the company were wrongfully confiscated by the Castro government in 1960 and that the cruise lines’ use of the docks constituted trafficking in confiscated property. The Helms Burton Act’s Title III—which allows Americans to sue entities in U.S. court for “trafficking” in properties nationalized during the Cuban Revolution—was enforced for the first time under the Trump administration after being suspended by each U.S. presidential administration since 1996.
Cuban Migration
CHNV Parole to Expire
Earlier this month, the Biden administration announced it will not renew the temporary two-year humanitarian permits for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, affecting nearly 530,000 individuals who legally entered the U.S. under this initiative since its introduction in October 2022. Originally launched to reduce illegal crossings by offering a legal entry alternative, the program provided up to 30,000 permits per month. While new applicants will still be accepted, current participants will need to seek alternative immigration options or face deportation when their parole expires.
Alternative pathways exist for some of these migrants. Cuban migrants may pursue permanent residency under the Cuban Adjustment Act, and Haitians and Venezuelans can remain in the U.S. under Temporary Protected Status (TPS). However, Nicaraguan migrants–nearly 100,000 of whom entered through the parole program–have fewer options and are at greater risk of deportation. This decision contrasts with policies for Afghan and Ukrainian migrants, who have been allowed to extend their stays in the U.S. through a similar humanitarian parole program
This policy shift comes amid increasing political pressure on the Biden administration to tighten immigration policies, a move that has sparked criticism, particularly as Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns for president. The program’s expiration will force many migrants to navigate complex immigration systems to secure legal status or face deportation.
Reuters | Cubans are disappearing as they sail to America, leaving a painful void
Cuban mother Mayra Ruiz has been living in uncertainty since December 2022 when her son, Maiquel Gonzalez, and 28 others disappeared while attempting to flee to Florida on a homemade boat. The group sought to escape Cuba's worsening economic crisis, spurred by U.S. sanctions and rumors of tightening immigration rules. Despite dangerous conditions in the Florida Straits, the boat embarked but never returned, leaving families in anguish. Efforts to locate the missing group have yielded no results, and many now fear they perished at sea. This tragedy highlights the broader migrant crisis in the region, with rising deaths and disappearances as desperate Cubans attempt to escape. Families continue to live in limbo, clinging to hope amidst a lack of government action or investigation.
An IRAP report detailed the conditions of many immigrants intercepted at sea and detained indefinitely at Migrant Operations Center in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.
Recommended Readings, Viewings, and Events
TODAY at 5PM | NYC | Open Cuban Artist Studio
The Cuban Artists Fund and Residency Unlimited Present The Yohy Stare, an open studio event featuring the work of artist Yohy Suárez. Location: 208 E 51st St, 2nd Floor, NYC
Oct 31 | Webinar | Public Opinion on Cuba Policy, Recent Polling and the U.S. Presidential Elections
ACERE hosts a virtual panel with Guillermo Grenier, William LeoGrande, Ernesto Dominguez, and Jorge Quintana to answer the following questions: Are elections in Florida preventing the Biden administration from updating its policy toward Cuba? Can Cuban-American voters in South Florida truly swing election results in the state—or in the country?
Nov 7 | Virtual Event | New Books in Cuban Studies
The virtual event features a discussion with Dr. Paloma Duong and Dr. Jennifer L. Lambe, celebrating the release of their recent books that delve into Cuban history, politics, culture, and media. Dr. Duong, author of “Portable Postsocialisms: New Cuban Mediascapes After the End of History”, and Dr. Lambe, author of “The Subject of Revolution: Between Political and Popular Culture in Cuba”, presents insights from their works. The event also will include commentary from Dr. Walfrido Dorta Sanchez, Assistant Professor of Spanish Studies at Susquehanna University, followed by an engaging Q&A session with the audience.
Read: By Helping Cuba, Washington Would by Helping Itself by William LeoGrande
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How to Help: Caritas Cuba is one of the only organizations on the ground with the capacity to bring much-needed aid to vulnerable Cubans.
What they are doing:
Provided ready-to-eat meals, hygienic products, and other essentials to 150 families in Artemisa and Isla de la Juventud in the wake of Hurricane Helene
As blackouts continue, they are monitoring the situation and ready to deliver canned goods to day care centers and soup kitchens, ensuring that vulnerable groups—especially children and the elderly—have access to food.
They are distributing food, clean water, and hygiene products to over 500 families in Guantánamo affected by Hurricane Oscar. Additionally, they are helping purchase construction materials to help families rebuild their homes.
Consider sending a donation.
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of CEDA.
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