The Largest Migration Wave in Cuban History | July 25, 2024
Thursday, July 25, 2024 - Edition 779
Dear Friends,
CEDA has been reporting on Cuba’s massive wave of migration in the past few years – and this week, two numbers confirm the historic exodus. Last week, the Cuban Government confirmed the population dropped from 11,181,595 on Dec. 31, 2021, to 10,055,968 in December 2023, a 10 percent decrease in population. A report from Cuban demographer and economist Juan Albizu-Campos announced starker numbers: a loss of over two million Cubans and an 18 percent decrease. The Miami Herald called it the “largest migration wave in Cuban history.”
The exodus has already caused stark socioeconomic challenges – and this is likely only the beginning. Cuba has one of the oldest populations in the region and the lowest birth rate in Latin American and the Caribbean.
Thank you for staying informed with CEDA. We will continue to monitor and report on these significant changes and their impact on Cuba’s future. Stay tuned for more updates and insights.
Team CEDA
This Week’s Top Story: Report: 18% of Cuba’s Population Has Emigrated Since 2021
Cuban demographer and economist Juan Albizu-Campos announced that between 2022 and 2023, the island’s population fell by 18 percent. This means that there are 8.62 million Cubans living on the island today. Without official emigration numbers from the Cuban government, Albizu-Campos used polling data and birth numbers for his demographic research. On Friday, the Cuban government confirmed the population dropped an estimated 10%, from 11,181,595 in December 2021 to 10,055,968 in December 2023. Most of the emigrants are between 15 and 64, of working age, which leads to an increasingly elderly and dependent population in Cuba.
Read our June 2024 interview with Albizu-Campos on Cuban migration here.
For more on the impact of the demographic transition occurring in Cuba, read our May 2024 interview with Mayra Espina and Elaine Acosta here.
U.S.-CUBA RELATIONS
Washington Post: How four U.S. presidents unleashed economic warfare across the globe
The Washington Post chronicled Washington’s immense and widespread use of U.S. sanctions and their unintended consequences. According to the report, sanctions often fail to achieve their political objectives and can worsen conditions for ordinary citizens. Trump’s Cuba sanctions, which Biden had said he would ease, were largely maintained under Biden’s presidency, despite the view among top administration officials that the embargo is both counterproductive and a failure.
The article quotes Ben Rhodes, who served as deputy national security adviser in the Obama administration. “The mentality, almost a weird reflex, in Washington has just become: If something bad happens, anywhere in the world, the U.S. is going to sanction some people. And that doesn’t make sense…We don’t think about the collateral damage of sanctions the same way we think about the collateral damage of war,” Rhodes said. “But we should.”
IN CUBA
Cuba’s Parliament Approved New Laws on Migration, Citizenship, and Foreigners
Sources: Parlamento Cubano, El País, 14yMedio, Telemundo
New laws represent a significant shift in Cuba's approach to migration, citizenship, and the treatment of foreigners, reflecting the country's need to adapt to pressing demographic and economic realities. The true impact of the new laws will be seen only as they are implemented.
Migration
- Property Rights:
- Cubans living abroad can retain their residency and properties on the island even after two years abroad. Before, Cubans were considered “emigrados” after two full years abroad and stripped of their residency.
- Three Categories of Cubans Abroad
- Resident Abroad (spending most of the year in Cuba or demonstrating significant ties to the island), Investor, and Emigrant.
Citizenship
- Multiple citizenships:
- Multiple citizenships are allowed, but Cubans must use their Cuban citizenship while in Cuba.
- Renunciation of Citizenship:
- Requirements to renounce Cuban citizenship: Individuals must be over 18, live abroad, have another citizenship, owe no debts to the Cuban state, and not be under criminal prosecution.
Foreigners
- Residency Categories:
- Foreigners can gain permanent residency if they have significant assets and plan to invest in Cuba.
- Introduces "provisional residents" and "humanitarian residents" for refugees, stateless persons, and political asylees.
- Includes a measure that foreigners must maintain respectful conduct towards the regime.
Miami Herald: Illegal drug use and violent crime are on the rise amid crisis, Cuba’s leader admits
In his closing remarks at last week’s assembly sessions, Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel described the current economic situation as “very difficult.” He admitted that the government can no longer supply essential medicines or deliver the limited food products available through ration cards in a timely manner. Díaz-Canel also noted that the persistent shortages and constraints are leading to increased social violence, substance abuse, and vandalism, which pose a threat to societal peace.
CUBAN MIGRATION
El País English: “‘I have never seen so many people emigrating as I am right now,’ says 43-year-old Havana resident Valia Rodríguez. ‘Of course, any Cuban would love to go. I would, for example. If I had the means, I would go, because in this country, with this government, one can’t live. And I’ll tell you something else, if I hadn’t recently given birth, I would have left, because the situation is unsustainable.’”
Miami Herald: Cuba admits to massive emigration wave: a million people left in two years amid crisis
In a National Assembly session on Friday, the head of Cuba’s national statistics office revealed that more than a million people—representing 10% of the population—left the island between 2022 and 2023. This marks the largest migration wave in Cuban history. The data supports earlier reports by the Miami Herald and Cuban independent media, which highlighted the mass exodus amid a severe economic downturn and a government crackdown on dissent. According to the newly released official figures, Cuba’s population dropped from 11,181,595 on December 31, 2021, to 10,055,968 in December 2023.
Semafor: Cuba witnesses mass exodus, result of ‘havoc and bad decisions’
Semafor: “More than 10% of Cuba’s population left the island between 2022 and 2023, in what experts described as the largest migration wave in the country’s history.
A severe economic downturn and the systematic quashing of dissent by the country’s authoritarian government have likely pushed more than one million people, particularly younger Cubans, to flee, with most heading to the US, Canada, and Mexico.”
CUBA’S FOREIGN POLICY
Newsweek: Russia is Sending More Ships to Cuba
Russia is sending more naval ships to Cuba, following a recent visit that raised concerns about the Kremlin's intentions in the Western Hemisphere. Starting on Saturday, vessels from Russia's Baltic Fleet, including the training ship Smolny, the frigate Neustrashimy, and the oil tanker Yelnya, will dock in Havana. The Cuban Ministry of Revolutionary Armed Forces stated that such visits are a historical practice with friendly nations. The visit will include courtesy calls and tours of Havana's cultural and historical sites, and the public will be allowed to visit the ships. This visit comes a month after a Russian flotilla, led by the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the nuclear submarine Kazan, sailed to Havana for military drills, which passed close to Florida, sparking speculation of a show of strength by Moscow.
Bloomberg: Cubans Are Still Being Recruited by Russia to Fight in Ukraine
Despite efforts by the Cuban government to curb recruitment, Cubans are still traveling to Russia to fight its war against Ukraine. Volunteers are enlisting through unofficial channels, with the estimated number of participants likely in the low hundreds, though precise details remain difficult to ascertain.
Oil Price: Russia Considers Building Oil Refinery in Cuba
Russia and Cuba are considering building an oil refinery in Cuba with support from Russian firms. During a recent visit by Russian lawmakers to Cuba, the topic of refinery construction was brought up, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. Russia’s TASS news agency quoted deputy speaker Alexander Babakov as saying. ‘The biggest Russian state companies could be working here,’ the lawmaker said. ‘Cuba has crude oil: it is logical not to import oil products but to produce them here,’ TASS quoted Babakov as saying.
AP: Cuban Olympic Committee demands the immediate exclusion of an athlete from refugee team
On Tuesday, the Cuban Olympic Committee demanded the “immediate exclusion” of an athlete from the island who was included by the organizers in the refugee team set to participate in the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. In May, the International Olympic Committee announced that 37 athletes from 11 countries will compete in the Paris Games as part of the Refugee Olympic Team. The team, established for the 2016 Rio Olympics, aims to highlight the plight of refugees worldwide.
For the first time, Cubans are included: canoeist Fernando Dayán Jorge, who won the gold medal in the 1,000-meter canoe sprint at Tokyo 2020, and weightlifter Ramiro Mora.
Since May, the Cuban government has opposed their inclusion, arguing that “None of these Cuban athletes are uprooted by war or persecuted.” The statement did not specify the athlete's name, but the canoeist has been outspoken against the Cuban government since he left his delegation during a competition in Mexico and crossed the border to settle in the United States.
Recommended Reading and Viewings:
Reuters: Havana's roads change as Cubans adopt electric bikes and vehicles
Havana, known for its vintage cars, is now seeing a surge in electric scooters and bikes, mainly made with Chinese parts, due to the country's economic crisis and fuel shortages. Electric vehicles have become essential in Cuba, with over 23,000 produced between 2020 and 2022. Fuel scarcity and high costs, coupled with a deteriorating public transportation system, have driven the demand for these electric alternatives.
Brookings Policy Brief: The Cuba-Venezuela Alliance: The Beginning of the End?
“Over the past 15 years, Venezuela and Cuba have become close allies both economically and politically. In this policy brief, Ted Piccone and Harold Trinkunas detail the two countries’ growing interdependence, explore possible scenarios for Cuban-Venezuelan relations going forward, and suggest policy recommendations for the United States.”
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of CEDA.
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