Russian Naval Exercises & Insights on Cuban Migration | June 14, 2024
Dear Friends,
Last week, CEDA hosted a webinar on the new OFAC regulations featuring Cuba experts Dr. William Leogrande, Robert Muse, and Oniel Díaz Castellanos. The experts fielded a host of questions about banking in the US, “U-Turn” transactions, and the impact of Cuba’s designation on the State Sponsor of Terrorism list. We will continue to post updates as we know more about the implementation of the new OFAC measures.
In this week’s Cuba news:
A fire at the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant in Matanzas broke out today in a fuel tank but was quickly contained.
UNICEF reports a “significant increase” in child food poverty in Cuba, reporting that 9 percent of Cuban children experience severe food poverty, plus 33 percent of Cuban children experience moderate food poverty.
Russia is conducting naval exercises in the Caribbean, including visits to ports in Cuba. Russian vessels arrived at the Port of Havana earlier this week.
Western Union partnered with Katapulk Marketplace to offer money transfer services to Cuba.
Cuba detected cases of the Oropouche virus, prompting enhanced surveillance and control measures.
A bus filled with Canadian tourists crashed in Camajuani, Cuba. A Cuban driver was killed, and 26 Canadian tourists were injured.
Mexico plans to resume oil shipments to Cuba to mitigate ongoing power outages and fuel shortages on the island.
Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos Espiñeira, Doctor of Economic Sciences and Demography, Full Professor, Christian Center for Reflection and Dialogue-Cuba, shares his thoughts on the socioeconomic impacts of Cuban migration and potential policy measures to address these challenges.
Lee la entrevista en español aquí.
*The views and opinions expressed by interviewees are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of CEDA.
1. Given the notable increase in Cuban migration to the United States since 2022, what are the immediate and long-term implications for both Cuba and the United States in terms of immigration policies, and social integration?
Cuban emigration to the United States is nothing more than a social response to the economic, political, and social stress that has affected the country for more than six decades. This process is equally impacted by the dispute between Cuba and the US, leading to the formation of an important Cuban community in the US. This community has created a strong support network for migration for more than 60 years and has been nourished with each new migratory wave that arrives there.
The first short-term implication that should undoubtedly be mentioned is the reduction in the total Cuban population. This emigration has been selective by age, sex, and skin color, favoring those who are white, female, and between 15 and 59 years old. This has had a clear impact on fertility rates and led to a decline in birth rate due to the high number of women of childbearing age (15-59 years) who are part of the migratory flows out of Cuba.
Without a doubt, it serves as a political agenda for Cuban authorities. By reinforcing emigration, it seeks to consolidate the sending of remittances as a source of financing, a political lobby, and a means of accessing basic products through the exceptions in the embargo.
2. Considering the substantial proportion of economically active individuals who have emigrated, what are the potential consequences for the Cuban labor market, and how might this affect Cuba's economic development, workforce dynamics, and productivity levels?
Due to the high number of departures over the last three years, the demographic window of opportunity that is crucial to the Cuban economic model has started to close more rapidly. As such, 80 percent of those leaving the country are between the ages of 15 to 64, fit for economic activity, and are qualified to work. This reflects the model’s inability to absorb such a large number of available workers, which could be approximately 3 million people. In any case, the country would not face a short and medium-term labor shortage.
This is all because the model is stagnant, having lost its sources of accumulation and currently acting as its own obstacle to the country’s economic development. For context, there is limited use of technology in the economy, as well as very low labor productivity–now lower than in 1958–and a GDP per capita that increased by only 40 percent between 1957 and 2017. It has an annual [population] growth rate of 0.6 percent, one of the lowest in the world, and the loss of population in active and qualified age groups is even more serious. One of the clearest and most drastic examples of this is related to the existing correlation between rural depopulation and the severe food crisis the country is experiencing.
Cuba will need to transition from the current model of “equality in misery” to a model of economic development and prosperity. This will require addressing inequality by creating containment funds that guarantee the resilience of vulnerable groups and those in worse conditions. Solving the current economic problems and distortions will require significant investment, effort, and time. The first step would be to officially recognize that the country is in a true state of emergency and demands a strong commitment from all aid agencies and international funds for humanitarian management.
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US-Cuba Relations
U.S. Intelligence Community Believes Cuba’s Government May Influence 2024 U.S. Elections: The U.S. intelligence community has identified potential plans by Cuba’s government to influence the 2024 U.S. elections, particularly targeting local and state races in Florida (The Miami Herald). This conclusion comes after an earlier assessment that Cuba attempted to sway the 2022 midterm elections in the same state. Last year, Meta removed numerous fake accounts tied to Cuba’s government from Facebook and Instagram, which were disseminating propaganda. To counter future threats, the U.S. intelligence community is preparing to combat the use of advanced tools, including AI, in foreign influence campaigns.
Russia Naval Exercises Commence in the Caribbean, Including Cuba Ports: Last week on Wednesday, a senior U.S. official disclosed that Russia intended to deploy combat vessels to the Caribbean this summer for naval exercises, which includes visits to ports in Cuba and potentially Venezuela (The Guardian). On Wednesday, the Port of Havana hosted three Russian Navy ships and a nuclear-powered submarine for a week-long official visit (The Miami Herald). According to a statement released by Cuba’s Ministry of Foreign Relations (MINREX), the visit underscores the longstanding amicable relations between Russia and Cuba and is stated to be in compliance with international law, with assurances that none of the ships are carrying nuclear weapons. According to Cuba expert, Dr. William Leogrande, this visit underscores Cuba’s deepening economic reliance on Russia amid a severe economic crisis exacerbated by U.S. sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and poor government policies (Responsible Statecraft). The Biden-Harris Administration considers these maneuvers routine, pointing to previous Russian naval operations in the Western Hemisphere from 2013-2020. A day after the Russian vessels landed in Cuba, a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine, the USS Helena, arrived at Guantanamo Bay. Although the U.S. Southern Command stated that the submarine’s visit was routine and planned prior to knowing about the Russian deployment (The Miami Herald).
Western Union and Katapulk Marketplace Announce Money Transfer Service Collaboration: Western Union partnered with Katapulk Marketplace, an online supermarket popular within the Cuban community in Miami, to offer its money transfer services via Katapulk’s website (the Miami Herald). Katapulk, founded in 2017 by Miami Cuban American businessman Hugo Cancio, delivers groceries and hosts over 150 online stores for Cuba-based small and medium private businesses. The new service is in a test phase and requires users to register through the Katapulk website or app. Funds can be sent to accounts at Banco Popular de Ahorro, Banco Metropolitano S.A., and Banco de Credito y Comercio, with real-time transaction tracking and same-day availability in freely convertible currency, MLC. The service, limited to consumer transfers, allows up to $2,000 per transaction. As CEDA reported last month, Western Union resumed its services to Cuba after disruptions caused by U.S. sanctions and a recent cybersecurity incident. The partnership aims to leverage Katapul’s large Cuban American clientele for remittance services; however, commercial transfers remain restricted due to U.S. sanctions.
In other U.S.-Cuba News:
Cuban Entrepreneurs Skeptical of New OFAC Regulations: Cuban entrepreneurs expressed skepticism about the new OFAC regulations released last month (France24). They fear that U.S. financial institutions will continue to over-comply with Cuba sanctions and regulations, leaving Cuban entrepreneurs no better off than they were before the update. According to the entrepreneurs, this uncertainty is heightened by concerns about a full Cuba policy reversal, depending on the outcome of the November election. While the stated goal of the measures is to support independent Cuban businesses, Cubans remain doubtful about their practical implementation and long-term viability.
U.S.-Cuba Recommended Readings and Viewings:
Cuba’s Role in U.S. Presidential Elections: Dr. William M. LeoGrande writes about the role that Cuba has played in U.S. presidential elections in his new article, “U.S. Presidential Candidates Pander, then Produce Failed Cuba Policy” (Responsible Statecraft). Dr. LeoGrande argues that during the 2020 Presidential elections, President Joe Biden promised to resume Obama’s normalization efforts but instead adopted a “hybrid policy,” easing some of Trump’s sanctions while maintaining most of them.
In Cuba
Controlled Fire at Antonio Guiteras Thermoelectric Plant in Matanzas: A fire broke out in a fuel tank at the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant in Matanzas on Friday (CubaDebate). The incident occurred in one of the 10,000 cubic meter tanks storing crude oil. The thermoelectric plant remains operational within the National Electric System as firefighters work to extinguish the fire. According to Mario Sabines Lorenzo, First Secretary of the Communist Party in Matanzas, the fire has been controlled with no reported injuries. Government officials stated that the quick action taken by the plant workers and fire brigades prevented the fire from spreading, ensuring continued power generation.
Cuba appears in UNICEF Child Food Poverty Report: Cuba has been featured in the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) report on severe child poverty. The report assesses Child food poverty using the dietary diversity score created by UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO). UNICEF measures child food poverty using the UNICEF-WHO children’s dietary diversity score in early childhood. To ensure healthy growth and development, children must consume foods from at least five of the eight designated food groups to meet the minimum dietary diversity standards (UNICEF). The latest report, released on Wednesday, June 5, reveals that 9 percent of Cuban children are in severe food poverty, with access to no more than two of the eight essential foods needed for a healthy life. The report also notes that Cuba is one of the countries where severe child food poverty has had a significant increase between 2012 and 2022 and that 33 percent of children under five years old in Cuba experience moderate poverty, having access to only three to four of the food groups. In the previous 2022 report, Cuba was not included.
Oropouche Virus Detected in Cuba: Last month, Cuba’s Ministry of Public Health announced the detection of Oropouche virus cases in Santiago de Cuba and Songo La Maya in Santiago province (University of Minnesota-Twin Cities). These cases were found during surveillance for nonspecific fever syndromes and confirmed at the Pedro Kouri Institute’s national reference lab. Patients showed improvement within three to four days, and measures are being taken to limit the virus’ spread (the Miami Herald). The Oropouche virus, transmitted by certain midges and mosquitoes, causes symptoms similar to dengue, such as fever, headache, and musculoskeletal pain. Most patients recover within a week, with no severe cases or deaths reported, and treatment focuses on symptom relief. The virus has also been reported this year in Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has urged enhanced surveillance and clinical suspicion due to rising cases and widespread dengue circulation in the Americas, Entomo-epidemiological actions are being developed in Cuba to control the disease swiftly.
Independent Journalist Released from Prison in Cuba: Lázaro Yuri Valle Roca, a Cuban independent journalist, was released after serving three years in prison on the condition that he leave Cuba for exile in the United States (the Miami Herald). He was arrested in June 2021, after he covered a protest in Old Havana, resulting in a five-year sentence for charges including disseminating “enemy propaganda” and resisting authorities” (the Miami Herald). According to a report from the U.S. Department of State, Valle Roca had no contact with his family or lawyer for over 100 days. Valle Roca’s release followed months of negotiations, primarily facilitated by the U.S. embassy in Havana. Upon his arrival at Miami International Airport, he expressed his intention to reunite with his family in Philadelphia.
In other Cuba news:
Bus Carrying Canadian Tourists Crashes in Cuba: Last Sunday, a bus carrying Canadian tourists crashed in Camajuani, Cuba, approximately 25 kilometers east of the Santa Clara Airport (Global News). The bus, which was operated by Air Transat’s transfer partner, was en route to Montreal-bound flight TS715 with 38 passengers on board. The crash occurred when an oncoming car lost control and collided with the bus, causing it to overturn. The accident resulted in 26 injuries and the death of the Cuban driver of the car.
In Cuba Recommended Reading and Viewings:
Interview with Cuban Economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago: In an interview with El País reporter Carla Gloria Colomé, Cuban economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago reflects on Cuba’s economic history, considering the current crisis the worst one yet, surpassing even the severe economic downturn of the 1990s (El País). The best economic period, according to Mesa-Lago, was in the 1980s, when Cuba was aided by substantial USSR subsidies. Mesa-Lago attributes the current crisis to several factors, including a significant drop in capital accumulation, industrial and agricultural production, and unprecedented inflation rates.
Cuba’s Foreign Relations
Mexico Resumes Oil Shipments to Cuba Amid Power Outages and Fuel Shortages: After a three-month hiatus, Mexico plans to resume oil shipments to Cuba to help mitigate the island’s ongoing power outages and fuel shortages (Reuters). Cuba has been grappling with increasingly frequent blackouts and fuel scarcity due to challenges in securing oil from its main suppliers and distributing fuel to its outdated power facilities. The electricity shortages in Cuba led to protests in March, one of the largest demonstrations on the island since 2021. Mexico’s state oil company, PEMEX, has been a key oil supplier to Cuba, sending an average of 21,000 barrels daily to the island since last year, complementing the reduced shipments from Venezuela. PEMEX began oil shipments to Cuba in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has reiterated his commitment to supporting Cuba and once again criticizes the U.S. embargo on Cuba as “unjust.” According to Cuba’s National Office of Statistics (ONEI), Cuba’s energy demands amount to approximately 125,000 barrels per day. With domestic production at only 40,000 barrels per day, the country heavily relies on imports, a situation that has been exacerbated by U.S. sanctions and the island's ongoing economic crisis.
For more information on Cuba’s ongoing energy crisis, read CEDA’s interview with Jorge Piñon here.
Cuban Migration
Interested in learning more about Cuban migration to the US? Check out CEDA’s updates on Cuban migration charts here!
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*The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of CEDA.