Violence, Migration, and Shifting Global Dynamics: Which Path Will Ecuador Choose?
Ecuadorian migrants, with their hands and feet handcuffed, line up to board a plane at the Albrook Gelabert airport in Panama City on August 29, 2024, during their deportation. (Martin Bernetti/AFP, licensed by Getty).
Ecuador faces a choice this Sunday, April 13, as to how it will contend with intensifying violence from criminal groups and economic fragility. The choice is between incumbent President Daniel Noboa, who proposes tough-on-crime measures and assistance from foreign militaries to help curb violence, or Luisa Gonzalez, ally of former President Rafael Correa, who offers an increase in social spending, major military and police operations, and combating corruption in Ecuador’s judicial system. This election runoff is a rerun of the 2023 snap election, in which President Noboa won 52% of the vote as opposed to González’s 48% of the vote. As Ecuador contends with the aforementioned crises, also discussed in our December 2024 report, the choice made in this election will determine whether the country succumbs to crisis or constructs a resilient system capable of comprehensively addressing violence.
This election could not be more consequential because of the context in which it is taking place. In 2024, 6,986 homicides were recorded in Ecuador, making it the second most violent year in the country’s history. Meanwhile 730 violent deaths were recorded in January of 2025, making it the most violent month on record. In Guayaquil, gangs fighting for control over territory resulted in nearly two dozen people dead. The increase in criminal organization activity has previously compelled President Daniel Noboa to declare several states of emergency in various provinces across the country.
The increase in violence has severely impacted refugee and migrant communities, contributed to the massive wave of emigration seen in 2024, and served as a cause of the relatively new phenomenon of internal displacement in the country. A recent 3iSolution study, funded by the Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO), found that an estimated 93,000 individuals in Ecuador were internally displaced due to armed violence in the 2024 calendar year.
The internal displacement crisis in Ecuador comes at a time when global budget cuts to the humanitarian community have left thousands without support and access to basic services. In a previous update to our comprehensive report on Ecuador, we highlighted how President Trump’s Executive Orders that halted foreign aid would leave vulnerable populations, including internally displaced Ecuadorians, in an even more precarious position.
These U.S. Executive Orders have also affected the ongoing regularization of Venezuelan migrants in the country. Specifically, a decree allowing for a regularization process meant to benefit approximately 100,000 Venezuelans was repealed last month, with the government explaining that the IOM and UNHCR funding suspensions forced them to cancel the regularization process. Prior to the cancellation, 3,000 migrants had their applications under review, and more migrants were awaiting documents from Venezuela to begin the process; this decision has left many in limbo.
The regularization process became a salient issue during a recent presidential debate between President Noboa and González. Responding to a question from President Noboa about whether she would recognize President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, González said she would recognize him in order to “return the Venezuelans that you [President Noboa] let in irregularly through Decree 370.” President Noboa responded by stating that the original decree of the process was started by Rafael Correa, in whose administration González took part. He also argued that his government has treated Venezuelans with humanity. This offers some insight into the landscape of discourse on migration policy in Ecuador at the highest levels.
The debate around the regularization process for Venezuelans is crucial as Ecuador hosts the fifth largest number of Venezuelan refugees and migrants in the Americas. As of December 2024, there were 444,778 Venezuelan refugees and migrants in Ecuador. Approximately 60% of this population is estimated to be in need of support. The need for regularization is as critical now as ever. CEDA forwarded steps the Ecuadorian government could take to stabilize communities in distress, including simplifying regularization procedures.
As Ecuador experiences this moment of uncertainty, one thing is clear – this election will determine the course of Ecuador’s response to violence, which will significantly impact the lives and well-being of Ecuadorians and refugees and migrants alike. As the entire region contends with the breakdown of global migration governance and humanitarian assistance, the path Ecuador walks down could impact regional stability for years to come.