For Cubans, It’s Been A Long December
The Cuban government, and the Cuban people, are bracing for a long year ahead. This month saw another national blackout on the island–the third since October–along with dropping tourism rates, continued migration out of the country, and soon, likely enhanced sanctions from the incoming Trump-Vance Administration.
We wanted to give a quick overview of the status of Cubans in the United States with the incoming Trump Administration.
There are an estimated 300,000–400,000 Cubans currently in the US with irregular status. Most of these individuals crossed the U.S.-Mexico border between 2017 and 2023 and were likely released under "alternatives to detention" without parole documentation (e.g., Form I-220A, I-220B, release of unaccompanied minors, incident reports, or on a DHS Bond under INA § 236). Most received an I-220A form, a conditional release document, which indicates they are released, pending immigration proceedings.
The Cuban Adjustment Act (CAA) provides a pathway to permanent residency for Cubans. It allows Cuban citizens or “natives,” their spouses, and children to adjust to lawful permanent resident (LPR) status if they: (1) were inspected and admitted or paroled into the U.S.; (2) have been physically present in the U.S. for at least one year; (3) are admissible to the U.S.; and (4) merit a favorable exercise of discretion.
Before the end of the “wet foot-dry foot policy” in January 2017, Cubans were paroled under INA § 212(d)(5) to seek adjustment under the CAA. After the policy ended, many officers have continued to release Cubans at the border pending their INA § 240 proceedings, with or without issuing proper parole documentation. In many instances, one or two members of the same family unit were issued parole documents, while others who arrived with them were not. In September 2023, the U.S. Board of Immigration Appeals confirmed that Cubans who entered the U.S. with an I-220A do not meet the requirements for humanitarian parole under the CAA. Immigration lawyers and advocates have found that border agents have used discretion to issue I-220A forms or humanitarian parole to some arriving individuals. This is the first time since the Cuban revolution that such a high number of Cubans are in the U.S. without an option of adjusting their legal status through the CAA.
In January 2023, the Biden Administration created the CHNV parole program for nationals of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to provide “safe and orderly pathways to the United States” for 30,000 individuals of each of these four nationalities per month. The CHNV Parole Program allows parolees to live and work in the U.S. legally for two years. This status will expire for all parolees between 2025-2027 during the Trump Administration. Roughly 110,000 Cubans have been granted two-year parole under the CHNV program. In October, the Biden Administration announced it would not extend the legal status of the over half a million migrants who entered the U.S. through the program.
In February 2022, USCIS issued a notice addressing previous denials of adjustment under the Cuban Adjustment Act for Cubans labeled as "arriving aliens" by DHS and later released pending removal proceedings. The notice provided a procedure for these applicants to reopen their adjustment cases, based on USCIS’s new policy that such DHS releases count as “parole” under the statute.
There is bipartisan support for a policy solution to address the hundreds of thousands of Cubans who are now in legal limbo in the U.S. Democratic Mayor of Miami-Dade County, Daniella Levine-Cava, wrote a letter to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas requesting the issuing of “the appropriate retroactive parole documentation sufficient to allow for adjustment of status” for Cubans arguing that many Cubans are “being forced to live in limbo–without authorization to stay here, and with no real options to go back to an oppressive regime in Cuba.” In January 2024, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) joined Reps. Morgan McGarvey (D-KY) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) in a letter to Secretary Mayorkas requesting the same thing.
In other news, a new poll from Data for Progress shows that a majority of Americans support the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba, lifting commercial travel restrictions, and supporting internet access in Cuba.
Finally, next week will mark 10 years since December 17, 2024–the day the United States and Cuba re-established diplomatic relations. Our collaborator William LeoGrande wrote about the occasion for Foreign Policy.
This week in Cuba news:
IN CUBA
Cuba's Energy Crisis
Cuba's national power grid collapsed again early Wednesday, December 4, after the Antonio Guiteras Thermoelectric Plant in Matanzas province—the country's largest electricity producer—failed. This failure left millions across the island without electricity, marking the third nationwide blackout in less than two months. The previous national blackouts occurred in October and November of this year. Cuban authorities announced the resumption of scheduled blackouts lasting about five hours daily due to ongoing challenges with fuel shortages and aging infrastructure.
Cuba’s energy infrastructure is heavily dependent on outdated thermoelectric plants, many of which are over 30 years old. The repeated failures of critical power plants, such as the Antonio Guiteras Thermoelectric Plant, reveal the fragility of the grid. These systemic weaknesses are exacerbated by dwindling fuel imports, primarily sourced from allies like Venezuela and Russia, both grappling with their own economic and political constraints. Furthermore, Cuba's reliance on oil-powered plants leaves it vulnerable to fluctuations in global fuel prices and supply disruptions.
BBC News | Hit by blackouts, Cuba’s tourism industry now braces for Trump
Cuba's tourism industry faces new challenges as Canadian tour operator Sunwing Vacations removes 26 Cuban hotels from its offerings, citing recent nationwide blackouts and an energy crisis exacerbated by aging infrastructure, hurricanes, and fuel shortages. Additionally, Condor Airlines announced this week that it will cease flights to Cuba in 2025, eliminating the only direct route from Cuba to Germany.
Cuba’s government has been widely criticized for its oversized investment in tourism in the past five years – building sky-scraping hotels across Havana while most rooms sit empty. The electrical grid’s collapse puts this shortsighted investment into clear view.
Plenary session called for – to discuss “Complex issues”
The IX Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) will convene on December 12–13 to address critical economic and social challenges facing the nation. Key topics at the session will include evaluating the government's efforts to correct economic distortions, the draft Economic Plan and Budget for 2025, support for state and private economic actors, and actions to address deviations and negative trends in Cuban society.
According to Cuban national news, the plenary session will address the “negative tendencies of society,” which are reflected in “corruption, vandalism…and the little sense of belonging of some people for the national project.”
Later, the Cuban Parliament will meet from December 18-20 to discuss topics including but not limited to the 2025 economic plan and efforts to combat crime, corruption, and “illegalities.”
The End of Wholesale Trade in Cuba Between Private Entities
On December 5, Cuba’s Ministry of Domestic Trade revoked commercial licenses for cooperatives and small private businesses engaging in wholesale trade as a secondary activity. The resolution also affects self-employed workers and mandates the liquidation of related inventories within 120 business days. This aligns with prior regulatory moves, including Decree 107 in August 2024, which restricted wholesale trade primarily to state-approved entities.
Critics argue the regulation undermines private sector progress and enforces state monopolization, with economist Pedro Monreal suggesting it aims to bolster state wholesale operations at the expense of private enterprises. The Cuban government defends the measure as necessary to control inflation, blaming the private sector's access to foreign currency and free-market practices for economic instability.
U.S.-CUBA RELATIONS
The subcommittee on Global Health, Global Human Rights and International Organizations heard from witnesses Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Former Chair of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee; Maria C. Werlau, Co-Founder and Executive Director of Free Society Project/Cuba Archive; Joseph F. Connor, Author and Advocate; and Juan Pappier, Deputy Director of the Americas for Human Rights Watch (HRW).
The witnesses had divergent views on the necessity of the embargo on Cuba but ended the meeting concurring that their goal was the same–empowering the Cuban people. In his opening statement, HRW’s Juan Pappier noted: “The human rights situation in Cuba is dismal, and the Cuban government is solely responsible for the abuses it commits. At the same time, the longstanding U.S. policy of isolation has done nothing to improve this. Rather, U.S. policy has been counterproductive. The embargo and SSOT designation have provided the Cuban government with an excuse for its problems, a supposed pretext for its abuses, and a way to garner sympathy abroad with governments who might otherwise have been willing to condemn the country’s repressive practices.” When asked about the efficacy of sanctions, he said that rather than using blanket sanctions that harm the Cuban people, he suggested lawmakers enact targeted sanctions on specific government officials and companies responsible for human rights abuses.
U.S.-Cuba Migration Talks
The U.S. and Cuban governments held migration talks in Havana on December 4. It was the last set of bilateral talks to take place before the Trump Administration takes over. The U.S. delegation was headed by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the State Department, Eric Jacobstein. After the meeting, Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossio spoke to the press and mentioned the following:
“Cuba insisted on something that it has been raising for some time which is the need to fully resume the provision of consular services at the (U.S.) embassy in Havana for those applying for non-immigrant visas, that is, visas for visitors to the United States.”
“It is important to remember that there are migration agreements between Cuba and the United States, and any issue of this nature, including deportations, must be carried out within the framework of the agreements. And in this context, it is not realistic to think that there will be massive deportations to Cuba.”
NBC South Florida | Cuban government calls Trump’s deportation plans unrealistic
The incoming Trump administration is considering deporting migrants to countries like Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, Panama, and Grenada, though the Bahamas has rejected the idea, citing a lack of resources. Cuba, not on the list, has called Trump’s mass deportation plans unrealistic, as they would disrupt the lives of thousands of Cubans in the U.S. Since 2021, the U.S. has deported hundreds of Cubans annually, with Cuba resuming acceptance of deportees in late 2022.
CUBA’S FOREIGN RELATIONS
Prensa Latina | Mexican President Reiterates Need to Lift Embargo on Cuba
Mexican leader Sheinbaum emphasized that addressing poverty and lifting economic embargoes on countries like Venezuela and Cuba is key to reducing migration. She revealed that in a recent discussion with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, she advocated ending these embargoes, which she believes contribute to migration by exacerbating suffering. Sheinbaum highlighted Mexico’s humanitarian programs, such as Sembrando Vida and Jóvenes Construcción del Futuro, which support migrants from Central America before they reach the U.S. border. She also stressed the need for legal migration channels, noting the U.S. economy's reliance on migrant workers, and affirmed Mexico's readiness to assist citizens deported from the U.S.
Recommended Readings, Viewings and Events:
Read: Cuba clamps down on much-promoted private sector plan amid crisis and exodus
According to a new ruling published Dec. 5 in Cuba’s Official Gazette, small and medium-sized private companies — known as Mipymes — will no longer be allowed to make wholesale sales unless they do so in partnership with the state. It was the latest — and one of the most significant — of several recent rules to tighten the grip on private businesses.
Read: How Recent Legislation Threatens Global Entertainment in Cuba
In the past weeks, rumors have flown in Cuba and over social media about new state legislation that went into effect on Sept. 19 and that many feared would ban private businesses from selling digital audiovisual content. Such a ban would deal a significant blow to the “paquete” or “packet,” Cuba’s robust offline system of media distribution that, since 2010, has come to constitute the main source of global entertainment on the island.
Read: The music of Arturo Sandoval is what freedom sounds like
The views and opinions expressed by authors are their own and articles do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of CEDA.
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