Cubans Brace for Trump 2.0
With the window nearly closed for the Biden-Harris Administration to act on Cuba policy, Cubans prepare for harsher sanctions under President-Elect Trump. This month has seen a flurry of news on Cuba–breaking and long-form. A Miami Herald article made rounds asserting that the Cuban military is sitting on $4 billion dollars in cash –though the leaked documents were not published. A deadly explosion rocked Holguín, and the U.S. transferred 11 detainees from Guantánamo. Plus, 60 Minutes dedicated a segment to Cuban spies Ana Montes and Manuel Roca.
Senator Marco Rubio’s confirmation hearing by the Senate for the position of Secretary of State will be held this week on Wednesday, January 15 at 10am.
Last month, we interviewed DC-based Cuban economist Ricardo Torres about the state of the economic situation on the island. He told us there was “little cause for optimism.” He covered the causes and impacts of Cuba’s brain drain and shrinking population. Torres noted:
“Cuba needs to create markets and productive actors—particularly private ones—that operate under clear and rational rules. Even its allies, such as China, Vietnam, and Russia, have conveyed to the Cuban government the necessity of implementing such changes to overcome the crisis. That said, one cannot be idealistic. The problems are severe, and even with a perfectly designed and executed plan in a more favorable international environment, it will take Cuba years to rebuild.”
Plus:
“As a neighboring global power and the home of the majority of the Cuban diaspora, the United States government has a moral obligation—and it is in its national interest—to take steps toward fostering a prosperous, democratic, and stable Cuba. However, this objective must align with the well-being of Cubans living on the island, who are already enduring a prolonged economic crisis.”
Read this week’s U.S.-Cuba News Brief:
U.S.-CUBA RELATIONS
Contradicting what U.S. spy agencies have publicly said, senior National Security Council officials told a group of Havana Syndrome victims in a meeting at the White House that they have seen information that undercuts the intelligence community’s assessment that no foreign adversary was behind the incidents. The meeting occurred on November 18, 2024 – 2 months ago.
ABC News | US transfers 11 Guantanamo detainees to Oman, leaving 15 at Cuba facility
The Pentagon on Monday, January 6, announced the transfer of 11 Yemeni detainees at Guantanamo Bay to Oman, marking the largest transfer to take place under the Biden administration. The DOD expressed the transfer as a part of the U.S.’s ongoing effort to reduce the detainee population and close the Guantanamo Bay facility. This latest transfer reduces the number of detainees in Guantanamo Bay to 15.
This move comes months after IRAP released a stunning report exposing the detainment of refugees in inhumane conditions.
The New York Times | Guantánamo Bay Explained: The Costs, the Captives and Why It’s Still Open
The Pentagon’s detention operation at Guantánamo once held hundreds of men who were captured by U.S. forces and their allies in the war against terrorism. Now there are just 15 prisoners as the prison enters its 24th year.
New York Times | 10 Years Ago, a U.S. Thaw Fueled Cuban Dreams. Now Hope is Lost.
Ten years after the Obama administration’s rapprochement with Cuba, which saw a significant wave of tourism and investment, the conditions for the island could not be more dire. The Biden administration largely kept the same policies in place towards Cuba as the Trump administration, neglecting any movement back to the Obama-admin rapprochement. Today, the tourism industry is down 50% since 2017, signaling a collapse. The infant mortality rate, which was once at lower levels than the U.S., is climbing. Additionally, Cuba has suffered 3 nationwide blackouts since October. While Cuban government officials attribute the responsibility for Cuba's misfortune to the U.S., Biden administration officials defend the U.S. Policy towards Cuba by citing the increased limit of remittances, an increased number of flights, and the creation of more banking opportunities for Cuban entrepreneurs. Regardless of these officials’ positions Cuba’s challenges intensify as the incoming Trump administration arrives with a Cuba hard-liner in Marco Rubio.
CUBA’S FOREIGN RELATIONS
CiberCuba | Cuba begins the recovery of 38 generators with Chinese parts, a temporary solution or a band-aid?
At the end of December, China shipped spare parts of diesel generators to Cuba, including engines, radiators, and other parts needed to restore damaged generators. This shipment is part of an agreement between the Cuban government and China, which is looking to recover 400 megawatts of distributed generation. According to statements from the Chinese ambassador to Cuba, it is expected that Chinese assistance will continue to come as Cuba contends with the ongoing energy crisis. The assistance also comes as Cuba embarks on an effort to reduce blackouts and improve the functionality of the National Electric System in 2025.
IN CUBA
CNN | Thirteen Cuban soldiers missing after explosions rock ammo depot
Thirteen Cuban soldiers are missing following explosions at an arms depot in Holguin province, according to the Cuban armed forces. The blasts, linked to a fire at a nearby construction site, occurred early Tuesday in the rural community of Melones, about 450 miles southeast of Havana. Authorities are investigating the incident. Since January 10, there has been no official update from MINFAR or the President on the status of the 13 missing soldiers, who have been identified.
Miami Herald | Leaked documents show Cuban military sitting on billions of dollars amid humanitarian crisis
The Miami Herald reported that Cuba’s military-run conglomerate, GAESA, has hoarded billions in hard currency, according to leaked documents which the outlet has yet to publish. The cash reserves are listed in dollars and pesos. For all currency listed in pesos, it is worth noting the extreme disparity in the official exchange rate of the Cuban government (24 pesos to 1 US dollar) versus the rate on the informal market (between 350 and 400 pesos to 1 US dollar).
The leaked records purport to confirm the tourism-focused investment strategy of the Cuban Government – which has for years prioritized hotel construction over much needed critical investments in healthcare, electricity, and sanitation – during one of the worst economic crises in the country’s history.
AP | Cuba frees man who participated in 1997 attacks on hotels in Havana, orchestrated by Cuban exiles
Cuban authorities recently released a Salvadoran man, Raul Ernesto Cruz Leon, who was convicted of participating in hotel bombings on the island in 1997. The hotel bombings were committed as an effort to undermine the island’s tourism industry. Initially sentenced to death, Cruz Leon’s penalty was reduced to 30 years in prison. Cubadebate expressed that his release highlights a moment of legal integrity, however, it shines a light on how other perpetrators behind the attack were never held accountable for the bombings. Cubadebate’s editorial on the release reiterated the Cuban government’s plea for the U.S.’s designation of Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism to be reconsidered.
CUBAN MIGRATION
Barron’s | Cuba’s “Invisible” Tragedy: US Bound Migrants Who Disappear In The Caribbean
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has recorded that 368 Cubans have died or disappeared on the Caribbean migration route since 2020. 2022 was the deadliest year on record for Cubans trying to get to the U.S. by sea with at least 130 migrants perishing. This extreme mode of migration indicates the severity of the economic conditions in Cuba and the lengths at which people will go to seek relief and refuge. This week, the Coast Guard repatriated 20 Cubans and 2 dogs back to Cuba after intercepting a boat 35 miles from Key West.
Recommended Readings, Viewings and Events:
Watch | “Los océanos son los verdaderos continentes” (Oceans Are the Real Continents)
“There is a ravishing kind of beauty in Tommaso Santambrogio’s lyrical triptych of contemporary Cuban life, “Oceans Are the Real Continents.” With black and white cinematography that privileges an exacting formalism throughout, this portrait of the island works hard to defamiliarize the very sun-dappled, colorful image of Cuba that so dominates the cultural imaginary. An intergenerational study on exile and belonging, Santambrogio has crafted a staid travelogue whose poetic sensibility is both what makes it such an intriguing proposition and also quite an alienating one.”
“Faced with a dire shortage of medicines, supplies, and medical personnel despite the authorities’ claims about the quality of Cuban healthcare, many patients are considering migrating just to survive. Others cannot afford to even think about it.”
Miami Herald | Carter’s foreign policy toward Cuba, Nicaragua and Haiti left huge marks on South Florida
Former President Jimmy Carter passed away on Sunday, December 29. Since his passing, many have reflected on his legacy in diplomacy. President Carter was the first former or sitting U.S. president to visit Cuba since the 1959 Cuban Revolution–in May 2002. During and after the trip, President Carter called on the U.S. and Cuban governments to mend relations and engage in diplomatic relations.
As President, Jimmy Carter welcomed 125,000 Cubans who fled to South Florida in 1980 during the Mariel Boatlift. This was a pivotal point in Carter’s Presidency as he received political pushback and it may have cost him the 1980 Presidential election.
60 Minutes | Ambassador, Pentagon official among the Americans spied for Cuba
This week, 60 Minutes dedicated a segment to Cuban spies who worked for years within US government agencies. The segment covers the case of Victor Manuel Rocha who pleaded guilty to acting as an agent to a foreign government in April 2024, having previously served on the National Security Council and as Ambassador to Bolivia. It also covers the case of Ana Montes, a former Pentagon analyst who spent 17 years as a Cuban spy. The segment includes interviews with Brian Latell, a former member of the CIA, and Peter Lapp, a retired special agent for the FBI.
Politico | Putin’s passport trap: The Cubans caught in Moscow’s endless war
“Jorge’s story and those of three other Cuban recruits in Ukraine and Kursk, as well as the families of five others, offer new insight into how Moscow is trapping foreigners — as well as its own citizens — on the front line as it attempts to exhaust Ukraine and its Western backers while cushioning its own population from the impact of protracted war.”
Reuters | Cuba’s Santeria priests urge followers to hunker down amid crisis
As is the New Year tradition, high priests of Cuba’s Afro-Cuban Santeria religion, known as Babalawos, released the "Letter of the Year," a spiritual reading that forecasts future events and provides guidance for the upcoming year for Cuba and the world. The message to their followers was to monitor their health, care for their families, and reduce alcohol consumption, among other things. The letter was published by the Yoruba Association of Cuba, the government-recognized organization of high priests, from which different groups have splintered off, and some issue their own “Letter of the Year” to inform them of what’s to come and how to contend with it.
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